Critical Minerals Risk Overview — All Minerals

View brief	Mineral	How it's used	Where it's found	Key risk indicators	Supply chain control	Risk score
View brief	Gallium Ga	Semiconductors (GaN) AESA Radar Electronic Warfare LEDs Solar Cells	China Germany Kazakhstan Ukraine	China controls ~80% of global gallium production Export controls imposed August 2023 — actively disrupting supply chains now U.S. stockpiles limited; domestic production nascent and insufficient	China Dominates primary gallium production as a bauxite and zinc byproduct and has actively used export controls.	CRITICAL
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Aluminum/zinc producers MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Chinalco Zhuzhou Smelter DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Semiconductor firms Radar manufacturers Key chokepoint Chinese refining + export controls
View brief	Antimony Sb	Ammunition Primers Flame Retardants Night-Vision Semiconductors Lead Batteries	China Russia Tajikistan Myanmar	China produces ~50%; export controls imposed September 2024 Constraints could cap U.S. artillery output within 24–36 months of conflict onset Received less press than Ga/Ge controls but may have the most direct combat readiness impact	China Historically dominant in mine/refined antimony supply and export leverage.	CRITICAL
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Hunan Gold Perpetua MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Chinese refiners DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Ammunition manufacturers Flame retardant producers Key chokepoint Chinese export leverage
View brief	Cobalt Co	Battery Cathodes Aerospace Alloys Superalloys Cutting Tools	DRC Indonesia Australia Canada Russia	DRC produces ~70% of global cobalt; Chinese firms control most mines Child labor and artisanal mining abuses compound reputational and ESG risk Cobalt-free battery chemistries cannot match aviation energy density requirements	China DRC mines much of it, but Chinese firms control major refining and ownership stakes.	CRITICAL
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Glencore CMOC Eurasian Resources Group MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Huayou Cobalt Jinchuan Umicore DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use CATL LG Energy Samsung SDI Key chokepoint China-controlled refining
View brief	Dysprosium Dy	Heat-Resistant Magnets Military Aerospace Jet Engines Nuclear Reactors	China Myanmar Australia	Myanmar civil war has destabilized the only significant non-China source Routed almost entirely through Chinese refineries with no bypass Western alternatives are a decade away from meaningful scale	China Heavy rare earth supply and processing heavily tied to China/Myanmar flows.	CRITICAL
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining China Rare Earth Group Lynas MIDSTREAM Refining & processing JL MAG Neo Performance Materials DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Aerospace firms Defense contractors EV motor manufacturers Key chokepoint Heat-resistant magnets
View brief	Germanium Ge	Fiber Optics Infrared Optics Night Vision Satellite Imaging	China Canada Russia United States	China controls ~60% of refining; export controls imposed 2023 Primarily a zinc smelting byproduct — difficult to scale independently Long-term security requires non-Chinese byproduct recovery investment	China Major production/refining control and export-control leverage.	CRITICAL
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Zinc mining companies MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Umicore Teck Yunnan Chihong DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Fiber optics firms Infrared optics Defense electronics Key chokepoint Optics + semiconductors
View brief	Graphite C (Gr)	Battery Anodes Steelmaking Nuclear Moderators Lubricants	China Mozambique Madagascar Canada Brazil	China controls ~65% of natural graphite and ~90% of anode processing China imposed export controls on graphite in October 2023 2023 controls are part of a coordinated Chinese minerals strategy	China Dominates natural/synthetic graphite processing and battery-grade anode material.	CRITICAL
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Syrah Resources Northern Graphite MIDSTREAM Refining & processing BTR New Material Shanshan Technology DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use CATL Panasonic Tesla supply chain Key chokepoint Battery anode processing
View brief	Niobium Nb	High-Strength Steel Aerospace Alloys Superconductors Naval Vessels	Brazil Canada	Brazil (CBMM) produces ~90% of world supply from a single deposit Single-point concentration is a systemic vulnerability regardless of political alignment One facility disruption would immediately constrain global armored vehicle production	Brazil Brazil overwhelmingly dominates global niobium supply.	CRITICAL
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining CBMM CMOC MIDSTREAM Refining & processing CBMM DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Aerospace steel Pipeline firms Superalloy manufacturers Key chokepoint Brazilian supply concentration
View brief	Platinum Group Metals PGMs	Fuel Cells Catalysts Military Electronics Sensors	South Africa Russia Zimbabwe Canada	South Africa (~70% Pt) experiencing active production losses from load shedding Russia (~40% Pd) restricted by sanctions — dual sovereign risk is unusual PEM fuel cells for submarine propulsion directly exposed to supply disruption	South Africa / Russia South Africa dominates platinum-group reserves and mine supply; Russia is crucial for palladium.	CRITICAL
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Anglo American Platinum Impala MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Heraeus Johnson Matthey DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Fuel cell manufacturers Catalyst firms Electronics firms Key chokepoint South African mining concentration
View brief	Rare Earth Elements REEs	Missiles Radar Drones EV Motors Wind Turbines	China Australia United States Myanmar Vietnam Brazil	China controls ~90% of global REE separation and refining capacity Mine diversification alone is insufficient without processing investment 2023 Chinese export controls exposed the downstream dependency acutely	China Dominates REE separation, refining, and magnet manufacturing.	VERY HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining MP Materials Lynas Iluka Resources Shenghe Resources MIDSTREAM Refining & processing China Northern Rare Earth China Rare Earth Group JL MAG Neo Performance Materials DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Lockheed Martin Tesla Siemens GE Aerospace CATL Key chokepoint REE separation + magnet manufacturing
View brief	Tungsten W	Armor-Piercing Ammo Machining Tools Missile Warheads X-Ray Targets	China Vietnam Russia Rwanda Bolivia	China produces ~80% of global tungsten DoD stockpiles acknowledged as insufficient for extended high-intensity conflict No substitute offers equivalent armor penetration at similar weight	China Dominates mine production and processing.	VERY HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Almonty Xiamen Tungsten MIDSTREAM Refining & processing China Tungsten Hightech DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Aerospace firms Machining industry Ammunition makers Key chokepoint China mine + processing dominance
View brief	Neodymium Nd	Permanent Magnets Precision Motors Guidance Systems Wind Turbines	China Australia United States Brazil	NdFeB magnets manufactured almost exclusively in China U.S. has zero domestic NdFeB magnet manufacturing at scale Combines raw material dominance with manufacturing lock-in	China Controlled through REE separation and permanent magnet supply chains.	VERY HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining MP Materials Lynas MIDSTREAM Refining & processing JL MAG Zhong Ke San Huan VAC DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Tesla BYD Defense contractors EV manufacturers Key chokepoint Permanent magnets
View brief	Uranium U	Nuclear Energy Naval Propulsion Nuclear Weapons Medical Isotopes	Kazakhstan Canada Australia Namibia Niger	Russia's ROSATOM controls ~40% of global enrichment capacity 2023 Niger coup upended French influence over a major supplier nation 2024 Russian import ban will leave supply gaps through at least 2030	Kazakhstan / Russia Kazakhstan leads mining; Russia has major conversion and enrichment fuel-cycle leverage.	HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Kazatomprom Cameco MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Rosatom Orano Urenco DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Nuclear utilities Naval propulsion Key chokepoint Enrichment capacity
View brief	Tantalum Ta	Capacitors Aerospace Electronics Medical Implants Chemical Processing	DRC Rwanda Brazil Australia	DRC/Rwanda coltan historically associated with conflict financing Chinese firms dominate midstream processing regardless of ore origin Supply chain traceability below Tier 2 remains poor despite certification schemes	DRC / Rwanda / China Central Africa dominates mined coltan flows; China is important in processing and electronics supply chains.	HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Pilbara Minerals AMG Central African miners MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Global Advanced Metals DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use AVX/Kyocera Electronics firms Key chokepoint Capacitor manufacturing
View brief	Vanadium V	Steel Hardening Grid-Scale Batteries Aerospace Alloys Nuclear Reactors	China Russia South Africa Brazil	China and Russia together supply ~70% of global vanadium VRFB technology immune to thermal runaway — critical military safety advantage Supply chain investment significantly lags the strategic potential	China Dominates production and steel-linked vanadium supply.	HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Largo Bushveld MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Pangang Group DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Steel producers Battery firms Key chokepoint Steel + battery integration
View brief	Nickel Ni	EV Batteries Stainless Steel Aerospace Alloys Armor Plating	Indonesia Philippines Russia Canada Australia	Indonesia export bans forced processing into Chinese-owned facilities Russian NORNICKEL sanctions created Class 1 nickel substitution pressure 2023 Indonesian policy concentrated battery nickel in China-controlled refineries	Indonesia / China Indonesia dominates growth in mined/refined nickel; Chinese firms heavily finance and process Indonesian supply.	HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Vale BHP Norilsk Nickel MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Tsingshan Huayou Jinchuan DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use EV battery manufacturers Stainless steel firms Key chokepoint Indonesia + Chinese refining
View brief	Chromium Cr	Stainless Steel Armor Plating Jet Engine Coatings Superalloys	South Africa Kazakhstan India Turkey	South Africa and Kazakhstan produce ~70% of global chromite ore Ferrochrome processing concentrated in South Africa and China Russian sanctions have rerouted supply through intermediaries, reducing traceability	South Africa / China South Africa dominates chromite reserves and ore production; China dominates ferrochrome processing and stainless steel demand.	HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Samancor Tharisa MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Ferrochrome refiners DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Stainless steel manufacturers Key chokepoint Ferrochrome production
View brief	Copper Cu	Power Grids Military Electronics AI Infrastructure Ammunition	Chile Peru DRC United States China	Electrification demand could increase consumption ~50% by 2040 U.S. mine permitting takes 15–30 years, creating structural supply gaps AI data center buildout competes directly with defense applications	Chile / China Chile is key for mine supply; China is the dominant refiner and consumer.	HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Codelco Freeport BHP MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Jiangxi Copper Aurubis DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Grid operators Electronics firms AI infrastructure Key chokepoint Smelting + electrification demand
View brief	Lithium Li	EV Batteries Drone Power Energy Storage Soldier Systems	Australia Chile Argentina China Bolivia	Battery-grade refining dominated by China (~65% of global capacity) Bolivia's vast reserves locked behind nationalization policies Processing chokepoint persists even as ore extraction diversifies	China Australia and Chile mine heavily, but China dominates refining and battery precursor production.	HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Albemarle SQM Pilbara Minerals Arcadium Lithium MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Ganfeng Tianqi CATL LG Chem DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Tesla BYD Panasonic GM Ford Key chokepoint Battery-grade lithium chemicals
View brief	Titanium Ti	Aircraft Structures Submarines Armor High-Temp Components	Australia South Africa India China Mozambique	Russian VSMPO-AVISMA supplied ~30% of aerospace titanium before sanctions New supplier qualification takes years; diversification is underway but incomplete Aerospace response to 2022 sanctions has been the fastest minerals adjustment seen	China / Russia China is large in mineral supply and titanium sponge production; Russia remains strategically important for aerospace titanium supply.	MEDIUM-HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining Iluka Rio Tinto Tronox MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Toho Titanium VSMPO-AVISMA DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Boeing Airbus Lockheed Martin Key chokepoint Aerospace-grade titanium sponge
View brief	Manganese Mn	Steel Production Battery Chemistry Aluminum Alloys Dry Cell Batteries	South Africa Gabon Australia Brazil	High-purity battery manganese (HPMSM) processed almost entirely in China Producing nations export raw ore without refining — processing chokepoint persists Strategic importance elevated by LMFP battery advancement but underappreciated	South Africa / China South Africa holds major ore reserves; China is central in processing and battery-material supply chains.	MEDIUM-HIGH
UPSTREAM Extraction & mining South32 Eramet MIDSTREAM Refining & processing Chinese processors DOWNSTREAM Manufacturing & end use Steelmakers Battery manufacturers Key chokepoint Battery-grade manganese chemicals